Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.123323 0.144824 0.169798 0.201153 0.239751 0.286081 0.346453
2025-09-14 0.094520 0.120271 0.153281 0.199399 0.263300 0.350443 0.481346
2025-09-21 0.072922 0.099079 0.135474 0.191218 0.277044 0.408790 0.636015
2025-09-28 0.052954 0.075678 0.109388 0.164975 0.258370 0.417051 0.726787
2025-10-05 0.044270 0.066685 0.102259 0.165800 0.283462 0.508194 1.017453
2025-10-12 0.038371 0.060751 0.098651 0.171890 0.321604 0.645143 1.510515
2025-10-19 0.033200 0.054955 0.094019 0.175225 0.357662 0.803342 2.221799
2025-10-26 0.029075 0.050140 0.090092 0.179138 0.398652 1.006487 3.342005
2025-11-02 0.024929 0.044473 0.083278 0.175076 0.420600 1.182706 4.696211
2025-11-09 0.021149 0.038807 0.075234 0.165892 0.426241 1.322052 6.236586
2025-11-16 0.018807 0.035576 0.071646 0.166625 0.462364 1.611227 9.449059
2025-11-23 0.016815 0.032707 0.068240 0.166905 0.499070 1.956245 14.524208
2025-11-30 0.015147 0.030334 0.065703 0.169670 0.551091 2.474431 24.676957
2025-12-07 0.013707 0.028212 0.063322 0.172350 0.607860 3.144207 43.937305
2025-12-14 0.012200 0.025676 0.059340 0.168771 0.638793 3.750381 73.067376
2025-12-21 0.010264 0.021824 0.051129 0.148457 0.581228 3.632426 84.393606
2025-12-28 0.009449 0.020556 0.049655 0.151123 0.639857 4.644127 170.849802
2026-01-04 0.008871 0.019776 0.049378 0.158248 0.731944 6.344907 438.453909
2026-01-11 0.008270 0.018838 0.048444 0.162691 0.817010 8.431276 1218.320753
2026-01-18 0.007741 0.018000 0.047627 0.167478 0.913880 11.355798 4329.200436
2026-01-25 0.007095 0.016748 0.045256 0.164702 0.957645 13.813665 14093.150560
2026-02-01 0.006419 0.015319 0.042036 0.156917 0.956967 15.509348 41496.031624
2026-02-08 0.006000 0.014550 0.040831 0.158223 1.036530 20.159754 449278.496587